The 2010-2011 AngelouEconomics economic forecast was given this past Thursday, January 21, 2010.  Angelous Angelou and his team put on this event every year.  A few of our key ATI directors and staff attended and here are some takeaways from Isaac Barchas, our executive director.

In terms of the perspectives it offered on the local economy, several things stood out:

1. Man, there were a lot of people in that room.  I mean a *lot* — more than 500, probably closer to 1,000.  With tables at $1,500 each.  People really wanted to read the tea leaves.
2. The economy is picking up, and locally, Angelos expects us to gain about 24,000 jobs over the next two years.  That compares to about a 2% loss in jobs for Austin during the recession.
3. Venture capital investment is down about 50% for Austin, which is pretty much where it is for the nation.  So we’re not losing *relative* ground.
4. As much as we love tech, the big driver of growth is … demographics.  When more people move here, they buy and furnish more houses, etc.  Of course, the reason they move here is opportunity, of which tech is a big driver.

On the national/international scene, economist James Paulsen from Wells Capital Management gave an optimistic keynote talk.  His basic thesis:  we are going to get strong growth globally and in the US over the next couple of decades.  The reason:  30 years of US trade deficits effectively financed the development of a consumer culture in emerging market countries, which is driving increasing global demand, which (when combined with the “good” demographics in those emerging countries) will drive an extended period of growth.  It’s like we made a 30 year investment, and now we are about to start getting return.

I hope he’s right.